IMF forecasts stable growth for Uzbekistan through 2026

Uzbekistan’s real GDP grew by 6.8% in the first quarter of 2025, according to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This figure surpasses the economic growth recorded in all of 2024, when the economy expanded by 6.5%.

As of the end of April 2025, inflation in the country stood at 10.1%, slightly down from 10.6% in May of the previous year. Despite continued inflationary pressures, the IMF analysts note that Uzbekistan’s international reserves remain at a substantial level.

The consolidated budget deficit was also reduced in 2024 — by 1.7 percentage points — bringing it down to 3.2% of GDP.

The IMF views Uzbekistan’s economic outlook positively, even amid ongoing global trade instability. The Fund forecasts GDP growth of 6% in both 2025 and 2026. Key drivers of this growth include increased private consumption, rising investment, and the continuation of economic reforms.

However, the IMF also cautions about several ongoing risks. These include the country’s high dependence on commodity markets, the potential tightening of external financing conditions, the significant role of the state in the economy, and geopolitical uncertainties.

The IMF has urged Uzbek authorities to enhance the efficiency of public spending, particularly in the social sector. It also recommends strengthening oversight of fiscal risks and improving the management of public finances.

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